(A) A logistic regression model of October colony weights and overwintering survival. Probability of survival (vertical axis) is strongly predicted by colonies’ October weights (horizontal axis, in kg). Dashed curves represent the 95% confidence interval. (B) October weights of individual colonies predict their overwintering survival. Here, each colony is represented with a bar. Length of the bar corresponds to the weight of the colony. Blue (black in monochrome) and red (gray in monochrome) bars represent survivors and nonsurvivors at the end of winter, respectively. Colonies are separated into locations and within each location; colonies are listed according to weight in an ascending order. Locations are noted below the horizontal axis.